Can AI have a positive impact on jobs?

A recent article by top experts suggests that AI will have a positive impact on employment, but that’s not the whole story.

A new Brookings Institution article from some leading economists and researchers explores the potential impact of artificial intelligence, specifically large language models, on the economy and knowledge workers.

The researchers argue that large language models “not only make workers more productive, but also increase the rate of innovation, which lays the foundation for a significant acceleration of economic growth.”

In addition, they predict a massive impact on the workforce, saying:

“We expect millions of knowledge workers, from doctors and lawyers to managers and salespeople.” […] Fundamental changes in their productivity within a few years, if not sooner.”

While researchers acknowledge the technology’s risks, they paint a largely positive view of AI’s impact on the workforce, countering comments that AI will lead to mass unemployment.

Are we really on the verge of an economic boom thanks to artificial intelligence?

is turned on Episode 47 of the Marketing AI ShowI spoke with Paul Roetzer, founder and CEO of the Marketing AI Institute, to discuss their argument in more detail.

1. The argument is positive, but the data may not be. “I actually watched it and thought they were trying too hard to convince themselves of it [AI] It wouldn’t be massively disruptive,” says Roetzer. “But all the data seems to suggest the opposite, that it’s going to be really painful.” Some of the data the researchers cite are obvious. They consider 49% of the workforce having half or more of their work tasks through AI. And that big language models can affect up to 80% of the workforce. This can be very good for productivity, says Roetzer. But what happens to workers who are displaced or not hired in the first place thanks to these productivity gains?
2. Part of the problem is the difficulty of modeling the impact of AI. Economists use historical models to make predictions. But there may not be models to keep pace with the pace of change and disruption, Roetzer says. According to him, reading the article made it clear that even the smartest economists had no real idea how to create it. “It felt like they were struggling with how to see the impact it would have.”
3. This means that we must accept the opposite argument can be true. The data does not seem to necessarily support a positive outcome. In fact, Roetzer believes there is a genuine chance of the opposite argument. “I think there’s more than a 50% chance we’ll lose millions of jobs in the next two years,” he says.
4. But no one has the answer, which is why you need to study artificial intelligence. “A lot of really, really smart people are trying to figure it out, and nobody seems to have the answer yet,” Roetzer says. This means you should prioritize using AI regardless. Find out what this role means for you. Help others in your organization figure it out. This is the best bet, no matter what the employment prospects look like.

Bottom line: Even the smartest people in the world don’t know how AI will affect employment, so workers need to be proactive and take their AI development into their own hands.

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